Haro Deportivo vs Casalarreina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Haro Deportivo and 1.13 for Casalarreina, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Haro Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Haro Deportivo win

62.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Haro Deportivo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haro Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Haro Deportivo and 1.13 for Casalarreina, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Haro Deportivo win62%

Draw20%

Casalarreina win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–18.8%
2–08.7%
1–07.8%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Haro Deportivo

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yagüe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 1-4 (L)

Casalarreina

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Haro Deportivo win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.