Haro Deportivo vs Náxara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Haro Deportivo and 1.14 for Náxara, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Haro Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Haro Deportivo win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Haro Deportivo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Náxara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Haro Deportivo win50%

Draw24%

Náxara win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.0%
2–19.6%
2–08.4%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Haro Deportivo

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yagüe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 1-4 (L)

Náxara

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbastro · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Haro Deportivo · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 1-4 Náxara (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 1-3 Náxara (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2025-01-12T16:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 0-5 Náxara (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2023-03-12T15:30:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 1-2 Náxara (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2022-11-06T16:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 1-0 Náxara (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2021-08-28T00:00:00.000Z · Haro Deportivo 1-1 Náxara (Friendlies Clubs)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Haro Deportivo win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.