Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente · Analysis updated 10:47 UTC
Haro Deportivo vs Pradejón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Haro Deportivo and 0.95 for Pradejón, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Haro Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haro Deportivo win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haro Deportivo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pradejón away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haro Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Haro Deportivo and 0.95 for Pradejón, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Haro Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yagüe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 1-4 (L)
Pradejón
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Balsamaiso · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Autol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haro Deportivo win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.