Harstad Stadion · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Harstad vs Tromsdalen Uil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Harstad and 1.60 for Tromsdalen Uil, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Harstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harstad win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Harstad home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tromsdalen Uil away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Harstad and 1.60 for Tromsdalen Uil, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Harstad
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 3-2 (W)
Tromsdalen Uil
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Trygg/Lade · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 9-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harstad win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.