Dunapart-sportpálya · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Hartai vs Kozarmisleny FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Hartai and 1.50 for Kozarmisleny FC, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Hartai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hartai win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hartai home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kozarmisleny FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hartai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Hartai and 1.50 for Kozarmisleny FC, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Hartai
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pénzügyőr · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 0-5 (L)
- 2024-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jánoshalmi · 3-2 (W)
- 2024-08-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Füzesgyarmati · 6-0 (W)
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ESMTK · 1-3 (L)
Kozarmisleny FC
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Karcag SE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mezokovesd-zsory · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kecskeméti TE · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hartai win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.