· Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Hartberg (Am) vs Weiz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hartberg (Am) and 1.77 for Weiz, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Weiz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Weiz win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Weiz away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Weiz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Hartberg (Am) and 1.77 for Weiz, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Hartberg (Am)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Allerheiligen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T08:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Lafnitz · 2-2 (D)
Weiz
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalsdorf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Allerheiligen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Lafnitz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gleisdorf 09 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velden | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Völkermarkt | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Treibach | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Austria Klagenfurt | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 6 | Weiz | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Kalsdorf | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | SV Lafnitz | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Allerheiligen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Tillmitsch | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Bleiburg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Hartberg (Am) | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Wolfsberg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -17 | 10 |
| 15 | Gleisdorf 09 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 16 | Donau Klagenfurt | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Weiz win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.