Trinity Health Stadium · Referee I. Bych · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Hartford Athletic vs Sporting JAX Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.20 for Sporting JAX, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Hartford Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hartford Athletic win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hartford Athletic home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting JAX away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hartford Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.20 for Sporting JAX, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Hartford Athletic
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 3-1 (W)
Sporting JAX
- 2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham Legion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Miami FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Loudoun United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartford Athletic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rhode Island · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -41 | 14 |
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hartford Athletic win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.