Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.30 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Tampa Bay Rowdies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tampa Bay Rowdies win

45.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hartford Athletic home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tampa Bay Rowdies away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tampa Bay Rowdies to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.30 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hartford Athletic win27%

Draw28%

Tampa Bay Rowdies win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.0%
1–113.0%
0–010.8%
1–010.0%
0–29.1%

Recent form

Hartford Athletic

2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 3-1 (W)

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Miami FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham Legion · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartford Athletic · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	11	7	9	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	11	5	11	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	5	12	10	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	4	11	11	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	4	6	17	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	-41	14
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	15	5	8	12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	12	45
4	Lexington	28	13	5	10	16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	11	10	7	7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	11	8	9	3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	-7	39
8	San Antonio	28	9	12	7	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	9	9	10	-3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	10	6	12	-4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	-2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	5	6	17	-20	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tampa Bay Rowdies win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.