Victoria Park · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.10 for AFC Hornchurch, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Hartlepool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hartlepool home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Hornchurch away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hartlepool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Hartlepool and 1.10 for AFC Hornchurch, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 51.5% vs market 44.3%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.2% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 41.2% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.3% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hartlepool
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 0-1 (L)
AFC Hornchurch
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.