England · Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central · Isthmian South Central - 2515:00

1 – 0

Tuesday, 31 March 2026

The Memorial Playing Fields · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC

Hartley Wintney vs Binfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hartley Wintney and 1.53 for Binfield, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Binfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hartley Wintney home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Binfield away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Binfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Hartley Wintney and 1.53 for Binfield, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hartley Wintney win36%

Draw24%

Binfield win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–28.6%
2–18.2%
0–17.8%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Hartley Wintney

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hayes & Yeading United · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Harrow Borough · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascot United · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitan Police · 2-2 (D)

Binfield

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deal Town · 2-4 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bognor Regis Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Park · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedfont Sports · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leatherhead	42	30	6	6	59	96
2	Westfield (Surrey)	42	26	6	10	35	84
3	Hanworth Villa	42	23	12	7	48	81
4	Moneyfields	42	25	5	12	32	80
5	AFC Portchester	42	22	7	13	27	73
6	Southall	42	18	11	13	10	65
7	Egham Town	42	17	13	12	15	64
8	Harrow Borough	42	18	10	14	0	64
9	Hayes & Yeading United	42	18	7	17	-16	61
10	South Park	42	17	8	17	-1	59
11	Bognor Regis Town	42	16	9	17	0	57
12	Hartley Wintney	42	15	11	16	0	56
13	Kingstonian	42	16	8	18	-7	56
14	Raynes Park Vale	42	14	11	17	-9	53
15	Bedfont Sports	42	13	11	18	-6	50
16	Ascot United	42	15	4	23	-4	49
17	Hendon	42	12	12	18	-12	48
18	Binfield	42	14	6	22	-13	48
19	Littlehampton Town	42	12	10	20	-23	46
20	Metropolitan Police	42	12	8	22	-25	44
21	Horndean	42	7	10	25	-64	31
22	Fareham Town	42	6	7	29	-46	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.