Hartpury University vs Frome Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hartpury University and 1.68 for Frome Town, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Frome Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hartpury University home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frome Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frome Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Hartpury University and 1.68 for Frome Town, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hartpury University win35%

Draw23%

Frome Town win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–28.7%
2–17.9%
0–16.8%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Hartpury University

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exmouth · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashley · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Tavistock · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Melksham Town · 0-1 (L)

Frome Town

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Malvern Town · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T15:00:22.000Z · Hartpury University 2-2 Frome Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
2025-11-08T15:00:09.000Z · Hartpury University 0-0 Frome Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)

Non League Div One - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Frome Town	42	32	6	4	65	102
2	Portishead Town	42	30	5	7	73	95
3	Malvern Town	42	30	5	7	42	95
4	Winchester City	42	24	10	8	40	82
5	Shaftesbury Town	42	25	4	13	27	79
6	Bishop's Cleeve	42	23	9	10	18	78
7	Hartpury University	42	20	7	15	28	67
8	Exmouth	42	18	7	17	2	61
9	Larkhall Athletic	42	18	7	17	0	61
10	Westbury United	42	17	7	18	-3	58
11	Sporting Club Inkberrow	42	16	7	19	-14	54
12	Didcot Town	42	14	8	20	-17	50
13	Swindon Supermarine	42	13	11	18	2	50
14	Falmouth Town	42	13	10	19	-16	49
15	Bristol Manor Farm	42	12	12	18	-20	48
16	Bideford	42	13	9	20	-28	48
17	Melksham Town	42	11	12	19	-18	45
18	Mousehole	42	11	13	18	-10	45
19	Willand Rovers	42	11	10	21	-20	43
20	Bashley	42	10	7	25	-22	37
21	Brixham	42	10	6	26	-45	36
22	Tavistock	42	3	4	35	-84	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.