Stade Adrar · Referee E. El Hanafi · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb Fès Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Hassania Agadir and 2.00 for Maghreb Fès, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Hassania Agadir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maghreb Fès away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hassania Agadir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Hassania Agadir and 2.00 for Maghreb Fès, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Hassania Agadir
Maghreb Fès
- 2026-10-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Raja Casablanca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hassania Agadir · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Khemis Zemamra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rahimo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahimo · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CODM Meknès | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Kawkab Marrakech | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Wydad AC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Hassania Agadir | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | UTS Rabat | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Widad Témara | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | FUS Rabat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | FAR Rabat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Amal Tiznit | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Renaissance Berkane | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Moghreb Tetouan | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.