Osteras IP · Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Hässleholms IF vs Laholm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hässleholms IF and 1.08 for Laholm, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Hässleholms IF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hässleholms IF win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hässleholms IF home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Laholm away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hässleholms IF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Hässleholms IF and 1.08 for Laholm, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–16.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 78.0% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 58.4% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 40.6% | 41.1% | 2.43 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 19.8% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 21.8% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 81.5% | 80.2% | 1.25 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.3% | 42.8% | 2.34 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hässleholms IF
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atvidabergs FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonkopings Sodra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tvååker · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosengård · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trollhättan · 0-1 (L)
Laholm
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tvååker · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lund · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atvidabergs FF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristianstad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Utsikten · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Södra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborg | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 60 |
| 2 | Hässleholms IF | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 52 |
| 3 | Lund | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 47 |
| 4 | Atvidabergs FF | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Jonkopings Sodra | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 39 |
| 8 | Trollhättan | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 10 | Olympic | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -9 | 35 |
| 12 | Kristianstad | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Eskilsminne | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Laholm | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -6 | 32 |
| 15 | Angelholms FF | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 28 | 2 | 6 | 20 | -45 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hässleholms IF win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.