· Analysis updated 02:40 UTC
Hastings United vs Hashtag United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hastings United and 1.50 for Hashtag United, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Hastings United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hastings United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hashtag United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Hastings United
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hamlet · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bognor Regis Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hendon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hashtag United · 0-0 (D)
Hashtag United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St Albans City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Royston Town · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · Hastings United 0-0 Hashtag United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Hastings United 0-0 Hashtag United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2024-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Hastings United 0-4 Hashtag United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Hastings United 2-0 Hashtag United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2023-11-04T15:00:00.000Z · Hastings United 2-1 Hashtag United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.