Hatayspor vs Sakaryaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.85 for Sakaryaspor, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Sakaryaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sakaryaspor win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hatayspor home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sakaryaspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sakaryaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Hatayspor and 1.85 for Sakaryaspor, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hatayspor win30%

Draw23%

Sakaryaspor win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.2%
2–17.1%
0–17.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Hatayspor

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Şanlıurfaspor · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Elazığspor · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Karaköprü Belediyespor · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Isparta 32 Spor · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 2-0 (W)

Sakaryaspor

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs İskenderunspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arit Kayadibi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kırklarelispor · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kütahyaspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T10:30:00.000Z · Hatayspor 1-1 Sakaryaspor (1. Lig)
2025-12-15T17:00:00.000Z · Hatayspor 0-3 Sakaryaspor (1. Lig)
2024-01-16T14:00:00.000Z · Hatayspor 5-1 Sakaryaspor (Türkiye Kupası)
2023-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · Hatayspor 2-0 Sakaryaspor (Friendlies Clubs)

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sakaryaspor win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.