Hatayspor vs Vanspor FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hatayspor and 2.03 for Vanspor FK, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Vanspor FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vanspor FK win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hatayspor home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vanspor FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 27% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Hatayspor and 2.03 for Vanspor FK, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Hatayspor win27%

Draw22%

Vanspor FK win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–19.2%
0–26.7%
0–16.6%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Hatayspor

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Şanlıurfaspor · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Elazığspor · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Karaköprü Belediyespor · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Isparta 32 Spor · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 2-0 (W)

Vanspor FK

Head-to-head

2026-05-01T11:30:00.000Z · Hatayspor 3-1 Vanspor FK (1. Lig)
2025-12-27T13:00:00.000Z · Hatayspor 0-4 Vanspor FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vanspor FK win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.