· Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Haugesund II vs Vindbjart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Haugesund II and 2.75 for Vindbjart, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Vindbjart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vindbjart win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haugesund II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vindbjart away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vindbjart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 26% / 18% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Haugesund II and 2.75 for Vindbjart, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–15.1%
Recent form
Haugesund II
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hinna · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Våg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 0-7 (L)
Vindbjart
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 45 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Stabæk II | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Brodd | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Våg | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Odd II | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 12 | Hinna | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 23 |
| 13 | Haugesund II | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -23 | 22 |
| 14 | Åkra | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -39 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vindbjart win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.