Haugesund Stadion · Referee M. Hatletvedt · Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Haugesund W vs Bodø / Glimt W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.32 expected goals for Haugesund W and 1.02 for Bodø / Glimt W, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Haugesund W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haugesund W win
80.9% probability
Expected goals
3.32 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haugesund W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bodø / Glimt W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haugesund W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 11% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.32 goals for Haugesund W and 1.02 for Bodø / Glimt W, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 4–16.7%
Recent form
Haugesund W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs LSK Kvinner W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 1-5 (L)
Bodø / Glimt W
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs LSK Kvinner W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk W · 1-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toppserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann W | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 48 |
| 2 | Fortuna Ålesund W | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 47 |
| 3 | Rosenborg W | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 39 |
| 4 | Vålerenga W | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | Lyn W | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 29 |
| 6 | Stabæk W | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 27 |
| 7 | Haugesund W | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 8 | Hønefoss W | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 19 |
| 9 | Molde W | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 18 |
| 10 | LSK Kvinner W | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -14 | 15 |
| 11 | Røa W | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -20 | 14 |
| 12 | Bodø / Glimt W | 19 | 1 | 3 | 15 | -60 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haugesund W win, at 80.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.