· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Havant & Wville vs Bognor Regis Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Havant & Wville and 1.72 for Bognor Regis Town, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Bognor Regis Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Havant & Wville home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bognor Regis Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bognor Regis Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Havant & Wville and 1.72 for Bognor Regis Town, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Havant & Wville
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanwell Town · 1-1 (D)
Bognor Regis Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hastings United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Park · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.