· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Havelse U19 vs Paderborn U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Havelse U19 and 2.63 for Paderborn U19, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Paderborn U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paderborn U19 win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Havelse U19 home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paderborn U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paderborn U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 18% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Havelse U19 and 2.63 for Paderborn U19, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Havelse U19
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Paderborn U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 U19 · 0-3 (L)
Paderborn U19
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsburg U19 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paderborn U19 win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.