Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena · Referee Maximilian Lotz · Analysis updated 05:39 UTC
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Havelse and 1.86 for FC Saarbrücken, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC Saarbrücken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Saarbrücken win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Havelse home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Saarbrücken away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Saarbrücken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 21% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Havelse and 1.86 for FC Saarbrücken, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 45.4% vs market 36.5%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +8.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.60 | 56.1% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.7% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.5% | 4.44 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 77.4% | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 21.4% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.15 | 43.9% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Havelse
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Saarbrücken · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Meppen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-4 (L)
FC Saarbrücken
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · Havelse 2-0 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2025-11-08T15:30:00.000Z · Havelse 1-1 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2021-12-18T13:00:00.000Z · Havelse 2-2 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
- 2021-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · Havelse 0-1 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Saarbrücken win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.