Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena · Referee Y. Sager · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Havelse vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Havelse and 1.38 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Havelse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Havelse win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Havelse home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Havelse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Havelse and 1.38 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Havelse
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster · 1-2 (L)
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Köln | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Würzburger Kickers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | SV Meppen | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | Havelse | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Havelse win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.