Bridge Meadow Stadium · Referee I. A. Griffith · Analysis updated 17:32 UTC
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.35 for Cambrian & Clydach, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Haverfordwest County AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haverfordwest County AFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambrian & Clydach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haverfordwest County AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.35 for Cambrian & Clydach, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Haverfordwest County AFC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff Corinthians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 0-1 (L)
Cambrian & Clydach
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ammanford AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs The New Saints · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Llandudno · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caernarfon Town · 1-9 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.