Bridge Meadow Stadium · Referee D. Morgan · Analysis updated 20:05 UTC
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 0.69 for Holywell, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Haverfordwest County AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haverfordwest County AFC win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haverfordwest County AFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holywell away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haverfordwest County AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 0.69 for Holywell, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 1–013.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–19.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 56.5% vs market 46.7%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 88.5% | 88.7% | 1.13 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 30.5% | 30.7% | 3.26 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 69.3% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.77 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 80.9% | 80.8% | 1.24 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 43.5% | 2.30 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Haverfordwest County AFC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff Corinthians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 0-1 (L)
Holywell
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Colwyn Bay · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trefelin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 1-0 Holywell (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haverfordwest County AFC win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.