Bridge Meadow Stadium · Referee A. D. Livesey · Analysis updated 07:40 UTC
Haverfordwest County AFC vs llanelli AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 0.91 for llanelli AFC, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Haverfordwest County AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haverfordwest County AFC win
71.3% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haverfordwest County AFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
llanelli AFC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Haverfordwest County AFC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff Corinthians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 0-1 (L)
llanelli AFC
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff Draconians · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea University · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newport City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 8-0 llanelli AFC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-18T16:15:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 6-0 llanelli AFC (Premier League)
- 2026-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 1-0 llanelli AFC (Premier League)
- 2025-12-26T14:30:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 3-0 llanelli AFC (Premier League)
- 2025-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 0-3 llanelli AFC (Welsh Cup)
- 2025-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 0-1 llanelli AFC (Premier League)
- 2024-12-13T19:45:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 0-2 llanelli AFC (Welsh Cup)
- 2020-01-03T19:30:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 1-0 llanelli AFC (FAW Championship)
- 2019-12-27T19:30:00.000Z · Haverfordwest County AFC 4-1 llanelli AFC (FAW Championship)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haverfordwest County AFC win, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.