Bridge Meadow Stadium · Referee N. Pratt · Analysis updated 08:30 UTC
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 0.76 for Trefelin, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Haverfordwest County AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haverfordwest County AFC win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haverfordwest County AFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trefelin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haverfordwest County AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Haverfordwest County AFC and 0.76 for Trefelin, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Haverfordwest County AFC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff Corinthians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 0-1 (L)
Trefelin
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haverfordwest County AFC win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.