· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Hayes & Yeading United vs Erith Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hayes & Yeading United and 1.18 for Erith Town, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Hayes & Yeading United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hayes & Yeading United win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hayes & Yeading United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erith Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hayes & Yeading United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Hayes & Yeading United and 1.18 for Erith Town, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Hayes & Yeading United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peacehaven & Telscombe · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camberley Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marlow · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartley Wintney · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 1-0 (W)
Erith Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hayes & Yeading United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SE Dons · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cray Valley PM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Broadbridge Heath · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hayes & Yeading United win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.