· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Hayq vs Ararat II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hayq and 1.20 for Ararat II, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Hayq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hayq win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hayq home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hayq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Hayq and 1.20 for Ararat II, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Hayq
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympia Yerevan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-3 (L)
Ararat II
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Shirak II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Pyunik II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hayq win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.