Capelli Sport Stadion · Referee N. Dommerudveksling · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
HB Koge vs Kolding IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for HB Koge and 1.37 for Kolding IF, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives HB Koge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kolding IF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HB Koge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for HB Koge and 1.37 for Kolding IF, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
HB Koge
Kolding IF
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Fredericia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus Fremad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AB Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Brønderslev · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Vejle | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Aalborg | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Hobro | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | AB Copenhagen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.