Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 2.28 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives FC Nordsjaelland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Nordsjaelland win

53.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heart Of Midlothian home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Nordsjaelland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Nordsjaelland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 2.28 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heart Of Midlothian win27%

Draw20%

FC Nordsjaelland win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.6%
1–17.6%
2–26.9%
1–36.5%
2–16.0%

Recent form

Heart Of Midlothian

2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 3-1 (W)

FC Nordsjaelland

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vatanspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Nordsjaelland win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.