Hampden Park · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Heart Of Midlothian vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.14 for Hibernian, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heart Of Midlothian home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hibernian away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heart Of Midlothian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.14 for Hibernian, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 3-1 (W)
Hibernian
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heart Of Midlothian win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.