Hampden Park · Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Heart Of Midlothian vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.30 for Hibernian, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heart Of Midlothian home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hibernian away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heart Of Midlothian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.30 for Hibernian, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
Hibernian
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heart Of Midlothian win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.