Tynecastle Park · Referee C. Scott · Analysis updated 21:35 UTC
Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.49 for Inverness CT, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Inverness CT the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heart Of Midlothian home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Inverness CT away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
Inverness CT
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stenhousemuir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Morton · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 6-2 Inverness CT (League Cup)
- 2021-07-25T16:15:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Inverness CT (League Cup)
- 2021-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 3-0 Inverness CT (Championship)
- 2021-02-26T19:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 Inverness CT (Championship)
- 2020-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 Inverness CT (Championship)
- 2020-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Inverness CT (League Cup)
- 2018-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 5-0 Inverness CT (League Cup)
- 2017-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 Inverness CT (Premiership)
- 2016-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 3-3 Inverness CT (Premiership)
- 2016-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 5-1 Inverness CT (Premiership)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.