Tynecastle Park · Analysis updated 13:19 UTC
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.98 for ST Mirren, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heart Of Midlothian home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ST Mirren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
ST Mirren
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 5-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2026-02-03T20:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 0-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2026-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 2-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 ST Mirren (League Cup)
- 2025-02-26T19:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-02-10T19:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 ST Mirren (FA Cup)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 4-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 1-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-05-15T18:45:00.000Z · Heart Of Midlothian 2-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heart Of Midlothian win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.