WAFA Park · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hearts of Oak and 0.85 for Heart of Lions, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Hearts of Oak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hearts of Oak win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hearts of Oak home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart of Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hearts of Oak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Hearts of Oak and 0.85 for Heart of Lions, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Hearts of Oak
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Port City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dreams · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bechem United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bibiani Gold Stars · 2-1 (W)
Heart of Lions
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bibiani Gold Stars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berekum Chelsea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashanti Gold · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Apostles · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Karela | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vision | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Debibi United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hearts of Oak win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.