· Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Heaton Stannington vs Knaresborough Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Heaton Stannington and 1.10 for Knaresborough Town, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Heaton Stannington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heaton Stannington win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heaton Stannington home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Knaresborough Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heaton Stannington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Heaton Stannington and 1.10 for Knaresborough Town, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Heaton Stannington
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Knaresborough Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wythenshawe Amateurs · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basford United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)
Knaresborough Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bridlington Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Benfield · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunston UTS · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heaton Stannington win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.