The Trustmark Group Stadium · Analysis updated 10:47 UTC
Hebburn Town vs Worksop Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hebburn Town and 1.40 for Worksop Town, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Worksop Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hebburn Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Worksop Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Worksop Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Hebburn Town and 1.40 for Worksop Town, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 66.5% | 67.8% | 1.47 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 72.4% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.4% | 32.2% | 3.11 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 46.6% | 47.4% | 2.11 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.5% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.4% | 41.6% | 2.40 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 51.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 48.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 53.4% | 52.6% | 1.90 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.35 | 27.6% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 60.0% | 58.4% | 1.71 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hebburn Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Darlington 1883 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 1-4 (L)
Worksop Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Telford United · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · Hebburn Town 2-3 Worksop Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Hebburn Town 4-2 Worksop Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Hebburn Town 1-4 Worksop Town (Non League Div One - Northern East)
- 2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Hebburn Town 1-6 Worksop Town (Non League Div One - Northern East)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.