Volksparkstadion · Referee T. Bauer · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for HEBC and 1.79 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HEBC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Dortmund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for HEBC and 1.79 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
HEBC
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 2-3 (L)
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.