· Analysis updated 07:13 UTC
HEBC vs HT16 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for HEBC and 1.50 for HT16, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives HEBC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HEBC win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HEBC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HT16 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HEBC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for HEBC and 1.50 for HT16, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
HEBC
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 2-3 (L)
HT16
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Hamburg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paloma | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Tus Dassendorf | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 3 | Victoria Hamburg | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Altona 93 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | HT16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | Niendorfer TSV | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Pinneberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sasel | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Süderelbe | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | HEBC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | ETSV Hamburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 | Teutonia Ottensen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Nikola Tesla | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Concordia | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 17 | Harksheide | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Norderstedt II | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HEBC win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.