HEBC vs Niendorfer TSV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for HEBC and 2.01 for Niendorfer TSV, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Niendorfer TSV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HEBC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Niendorfer TSV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niendorfer TSV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for HEBC and 2.01 for Niendorfer TSV, a combined 4.02 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

HEBC win40%

Draw21%

Niendorfer TSV win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–27.3%
1–27.3%
2–17.3%
1–17.3%
2–34.9%

Recent form

HEBC

2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Norderstedt II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Süderelbe · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 0-2 (L)

Niendorfer TSV

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 9-5 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ETSV Hamburg · 6-4 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	HT16	13	7	2	4	14	23
6	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
7	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Sasel	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
11	HEBC	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Buchholz	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.