HEBC vs Pinneberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for HEBC and 1.60 for Pinneberg, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Pinneberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HEBC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pinneberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pinneberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for HEBC and 1.60 for Pinneberg, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

HEBC win37%

Draw24%

Pinneberg win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%
0–16.9%
1–06.6%

Recent form

HEBC

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 2-3 (L)

Pinneberg

2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-23T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	12	8	2	2	11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	7	2	2	17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	6	5	1	8	23
4	Altona 93	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	6	3	3	5	21
6	HT16	12	6	2	4	13	20
7	Niendorfer TSV	12	6	2	4	2	20
8	Pinneberg	11	5	2	4	4	17
9	Sasel	12	5	2	5	-2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	4	3	5	2	15
11	HEBC	12	5	0	7	-3	15
12	Buchholz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	4	2	5	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	3	2	6	-1	11
16	Concordia	12	3	2	7	-12	11
17	Harksheide	11	1	5	5	-9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	1	1	10	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.