· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Hednesford Town vs Morecambe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Hednesford Town and 1.39 for Morecambe, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Hednesford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hednesford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Morecambe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hednesford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Hednesford Town and 1.39 for Morecambe, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Hednesford Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brackley Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hereford · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 1-2 (L)
Morecambe
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brackley Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southport · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macclesfield | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | King's Lynn Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | South Shields | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 7 | Hednesford Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Hebburn Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 | Spalding United | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Buxton | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Bedford Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Worksop Town | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 18 | Brackley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -6 | 12 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 | Southport | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.