Abe Lenstra Stadion · Referee Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Heerenveen and 2.20 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.4%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 2-2 (D)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-12T14:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-23T11:15:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-22T16:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-4 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-02T11:15:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-9 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-28T11:15:00.000Z · Heerenveen 2-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-04-01T14:30:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-14T17:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.