Abe Lenstra Stadion · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.83 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 2-2 (D)
Excelsior
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T20:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2025-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-19T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-3 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2023-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-3 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-13T18:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2022-11-05T20:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2022-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-1 Excelsior (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-10-30T18:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-0 Excelsior (KNVB Beker)
- 2019-03-30T19:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.