· Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Heerenveen vs OH Leuven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.88 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 5.13. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heerenveen win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OH Leuven away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 15% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for Heerenveen and 1.88 for OH Leuven, a combined 5.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.4%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–15.9%
- 2–25.5%
- 4–15.2%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
OH Leuven
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heerenveen win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.