Abe Lenstra Stadion · Analysis updated 22:59 UTC
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Heerenveen to Win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Heerenveen to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.