Abe Lenstra Stadion · Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands · Analysis updated 08:07 UTC
Heerenveen vs Telstar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.38 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Telstar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Heerenveen and 1.38 for Telstar, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
Telstar
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · Heerenveen 0-0 Telstar (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-0 Telstar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-10-19T10:15:00.000Z · Heerenveen 3-2 Telstar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-07-11T17:00:00.000Z · Heerenveen 1-1 Telstar (Friendlies Clubs)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.