Abe Lenstra Stadion · Referee Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands · Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Heerenveen vs Twente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for Twente, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Heerenveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Heerenveen to Win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Twente away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for Twente, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Heerenveen
Twente
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.