Sportpark Skoatterwald · Referee L. Verhart · Analysis updated 21:21 UTC
Heerenveen W vs Ajax W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Heerenveen W and 2.08 for Ajax W, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Ajax W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax W win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 21% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Heerenveen W and 2.08 for Ajax W, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–27.3%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Heerenveen W
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 1-5 (L)
Ajax W
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax W win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.