Sportpark Skoatterwald · Referee M. Rouwenhorst · Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
Heerenveen W vs NAC Breda W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Heerenveen W and 1.30 for NAC Breda W, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Heerenveen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heerenveen W win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heerenveen W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NAC Breda W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerenveen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Heerenveen W and 1.30 for NAC Breda W, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
Heerenveen W
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 1-5 (L)
NAC Breda W
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Hera United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T15:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen W 5-0 NAC Breda W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-12-07T15:45:00.000Z · Heerenveen W 2-0 NAC Breda W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heerenveen W win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.